Kennedy also out of Senate race
I was out of town when this happened so now I'm playing catch-up. Patrick Kennedy has also decided not to run for Senate, saying that he thought he'd be more effective by keeping his seat on the Appropriations Committee. It's also been suggested that his mother's recent health problems played a role in his decision.
With Jim Langevin also having passed on the race, there seems to be a certain discouragement among some Democrats and a sense that we're now playing with the B-team against Lincoln Chafee -- namely Secretary of State Matt Brown and former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, who appears set to announce tomorrow. Kos, who openly says that Langevin "was driven out of the race by the pro-choice lobby," now gives the advantage to Chafee. For reasons I've explained in the past, I thought Langevin was probably the strongest candidate to challenge Chafee, and if he was in fact deterred from running by the prospect of a bruising fight over abortion, it's certainly a shame for him and for the Democratic Party. I was never too enthusiastic about Kennedy: though he's high-profile and capable of raising a lot of money, I get the sense that he isn't all that respected and that he wins mostly by being a well-funded Democrat in this deep-blue state and not on his merits or even his family name.
In any case, they're both out of the race now, and so it looks like Chafee will face either Brown or Whitehouse unless some other dark horse is waiting in the wings. Each of them brings certain advantages and disadvantages to the race. Brown is young and energetic and carries the impression of being honest and immune to Washington's insider games. He also articulates a convincing case against Chafee, namely that although he takes a number of liberal positions and sometimes votes against the Bush administration, he doesn't typically stand up and take the lead on issues and thus ends up accomplishing very little. By contrast, when Brown says he's going to fight for something, you believe him so instinctively that it's almost scary.
Which brings us to his major disadvantage, which is his rather abrasive and confrontational style. When I saw him speak, for example, he said, "I don't want anti-choice people in the Democratic Party," and you didn't get the impression he was interested in hearing other opinions than his. Maybe he'll drop this particular meme now that he won't be running against Langevin, but I suspect a lot of voters only want a "fighter" up to a point and may feel alienated by this sort of rhetoric, even if they happen to agree with Brown on the issues. Chafee, who is easy-going and respectful almost to a fault, poses no such problem, and I even worry that Brown might seem like a bully if he starts to attack the reticent Chafee too aggressively.
Or, for that matter, if he does it to Sheldon Whitehouse, who seems to have a similar reputation. I admittedly know less about Whitehouse's career, but I've crossed paths with him twice now, once on the day of the presidential primary when he came to vote at a polling place where I was doing visibility, and once at a fundraiser/party for the third presidential debate, and both times he seemed very polite and approachable. It's clear, from the article about Whitehouse's entry and this article about Langevin that the state's political establishment is skeptical of Brown and now seems to be lining up behind Whitehouse, even to the point of urging Brown to drop out. It's not clear yet whether he truly has deep support or is just the Anybody But Brown candidate, but either way this looks like a competitive primary.
The main knock against Whitehouse, I think, is that he couldn't pull off a win in the 2002 gubernatorial primary against already-twice-nominated Myrth York, who went on to her third straight general election defeat. This is a strike against him, but it was a three-way primary, and most seem to think he'd have won if third-place candidate Tony Pires had not been in the race. As a Brown-skeptic myself, I'm leaning in Whitehouse's direction at this point, whatever his drawbacks. The biggest challenge for either of them, however, will be to make themselves better known to the state's voters and elevate their stature to the point that they can credibly take on Chafee and win.
Assuming, of course, that Chafee doesn't lose his primary to a conservative challenger. But that's another blog entry.
With Jim Langevin also having passed on the race, there seems to be a certain discouragement among some Democrats and a sense that we're now playing with the B-team against Lincoln Chafee -- namely Secretary of State Matt Brown and former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, who appears set to announce tomorrow. Kos, who openly says that Langevin "was driven out of the race by the pro-choice lobby," now gives the advantage to Chafee. For reasons I've explained in the past, I thought Langevin was probably the strongest candidate to challenge Chafee, and if he was in fact deterred from running by the prospect of a bruising fight over abortion, it's certainly a shame for him and for the Democratic Party. I was never too enthusiastic about Kennedy: though he's high-profile and capable of raising a lot of money, I get the sense that he isn't all that respected and that he wins mostly by being a well-funded Democrat in this deep-blue state and not on his merits or even his family name.
In any case, they're both out of the race now, and so it looks like Chafee will face either Brown or Whitehouse unless some other dark horse is waiting in the wings. Each of them brings certain advantages and disadvantages to the race. Brown is young and energetic and carries the impression of being honest and immune to Washington's insider games. He also articulates a convincing case against Chafee, namely that although he takes a number of liberal positions and sometimes votes against the Bush administration, he doesn't typically stand up and take the lead on issues and thus ends up accomplishing very little. By contrast, when Brown says he's going to fight for something, you believe him so instinctively that it's almost scary.
Which brings us to his major disadvantage, which is his rather abrasive and confrontational style. When I saw him speak, for example, he said, "I don't want anti-choice people in the Democratic Party," and you didn't get the impression he was interested in hearing other opinions than his. Maybe he'll drop this particular meme now that he won't be running against Langevin, but I suspect a lot of voters only want a "fighter" up to a point and may feel alienated by this sort of rhetoric, even if they happen to agree with Brown on the issues. Chafee, who is easy-going and respectful almost to a fault, poses no such problem, and I even worry that Brown might seem like a bully if he starts to attack the reticent Chafee too aggressively.
Or, for that matter, if he does it to Sheldon Whitehouse, who seems to have a similar reputation. I admittedly know less about Whitehouse's career, but I've crossed paths with him twice now, once on the day of the presidential primary when he came to vote at a polling place where I was doing visibility, and once at a fundraiser/party for the third presidential debate, and both times he seemed very polite and approachable. It's clear, from the article about Whitehouse's entry and this article about Langevin that the state's political establishment is skeptical of Brown and now seems to be lining up behind Whitehouse, even to the point of urging Brown to drop out. It's not clear yet whether he truly has deep support or is just the Anybody But Brown candidate, but either way this looks like a competitive primary.
The main knock against Whitehouse, I think, is that he couldn't pull off a win in the 2002 gubernatorial primary against already-twice-nominated Myrth York, who went on to her third straight general election defeat. This is a strike against him, but it was a three-way primary, and most seem to think he'd have won if third-place candidate Tony Pires had not been in the race. As a Brown-skeptic myself, I'm leaning in Whitehouse's direction at this point, whatever his drawbacks. The biggest challenge for either of them, however, will be to make themselves better known to the state's voters and elevate their stature to the point that they can credibly take on Chafee and win.
Assuming, of course, that Chafee doesn't lose his primary to a conservative challenger. But that's another blog entry.
