Missouri Results

I don't have anything in particular to add about the Virginia and New Jersey Governor's races that isn't already being said, so instead I'm going to say a little about the outcome of the special election in Missouri that I mentioned yesterday. To make a long story short, the Democratic candidate Jane Bogetto won, and by a considerable margin:

Bogetto (D) 57.6% (4,866)
Byrd, M. (R) 42.4% (3,600)

Compare this to the results for the same seat in 2004:

Byrd, R. (R) 53.9% (11,206)
Cotten (D) 46.1% (9,567)

Part of this, of course, may simply be due to the changing demographics (or at least political leanings) of the area -- there is not much of the district that would be considered to lie within the realm of the traditional Democratic base, but as the suburbs become increasingly Democratic, that may no longer be the case. And in any case, the shift isn't limited to the past year alone: Cotten, the 2004 candidate, was the first Democrat even on the ballot in District 94 since 1996 (previous years had seen an unopposed Republican or only a Libertarian opponent).

Missouri Republicans can correctly point out that turnout was typically low and that they did retain a State Senate seat and pickup a State House seat in District 150 previously held by a Democrat yesterday as well. It's yet to be seen for certain, then, whether either party is registering net gains in Missouri or simply shuffling votes around between different areas and demographics. What does seem clear, however, is that Republican Governor Matt Blunt is in serious trouble; District 150 Republican winner Jason Smith and his Democratic opponent Bobby Simpson both signed a pledge criticizing the Governor's health care cuts. (Credit to Fired Up Missouri for unearthing that one.) Blunt himself continues to register extraordinarily low approval ratings; in the most recent SurveyUSA 50-state poll, he's at 33/61, tied with Arnold Schwarzenegger at 33/65. (These numbers are doubly stunning when you consider that the only Governors with lower approval ratings are the beleaguered Ernie Fletcher of Kentucky and Bob Taft of Ohio, also both Republicans.)

What does all this mean? Well, aside from making Blunt himself highly vulnerable in 2008, this probably elevates the standing of Claire McCaskill, the Democrat whom many Missourians undoubtedly wish they'd elected Governor instead of Blunt and who is now running against Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Talent next year. Missouri has trended increasingly Republican in recent statewide races and can be safely characterized as a socially conservative state, but Blunt's sagging popularity along with Bush's low approval rating in the state (SurveyUSA puts the President at 39-59 in Missouri) means that Talent can't rely on his party to put him over the top. A September poll by Rasmussen Reports in fact shows Talent and McCaskill tied 46-46, with perceptions of Bush strongly correlating to voter choice (those who strongly approve of Bush favor Talent 91-7, and those who strongly disapprove favor McCaskill 81-9).

I've said before that perhaps the Republicans have peaked in Minnesota, where Kerry outpolled Gore and Democrats made significant gains in the State House in 2004 (following the election of Sen. Norm Coleman and Gov. Tim Pawlenty, both Republicans, in 2002). One can only hope that such a trend back towards the Democrats is under way in Missouri.