SurveyUSA and Chafee

The Survey USA numbers (see below) present some interesting insights into the nature of the race here in Rhode Island. Perhaps not entirely surprisingly, Chafee has higher approval ratings among Democrats than Republicans:

Democrats (32% of sample)
Approve 64%
Disapprove 31
Not Sure 5

Republicans (19% of sample)
Approve 52
Disapprove 43
Not Sure 6

Independents (46% of sample)
Approve 54
Disapprove 40
Not Sure 6

Suppose we start out by assuming that all the Republicans who approve of Chafee vote for him, that all the Democrats who disapprove of Chafee vote against him, and that Independents simply vote their Approve/Disapprove preference. In that case, here's where we start:

Chafee 35
Democrat 28
Unassigned 34

Recalculating percentages so that they add to one hundred (it's unclear why the Democrats, Republicans, and Independents don't sum to 100 percent in the SUSA sample), we get:

Chafee 36
Democrat 29
Unassigned 35

The trick for a Democratic candidate to get to 50%, then, is to win big among the currently "unassigned" and/or try to decrease their numbers by causing anti-Chafee Republicans to stay home. However, even if you assume that all the anti-Chafee Republicans do in fact vote for Chafee, here's what you get:

Chafee 44
Democrat 29
Unassigned 27

If this happens, then the election will rest in the hands of the pro-Chafee Democrats and those currently in the "Not Sure" category -- of the 27% unassigned, the Democrat would need 78%, or 21% total, to get to 50%.

Of course, there's no guarantee that this is what will actually happen. The Independents in Rhode Island are probably a somewhat left-leaning (or at least more left than right) bunch, given how overwhelmingly Democratic the vote results here typically are. Some of them, then, may well be inclined to vote against Chafee even if they approve of him, and obviously not *all* the anti-Chafee Republicans will come out to vote (though perhaps most of them will).

Still, this illustrates the peculiarities of a race where the outcome may hinge on whether Democrats can be convinced to vote for a Democrat.