Grading the Senate Freshmen

Survey USA has released a new 50-state poll tracking approval ratings for each U.S. Senator. I decided to take a look at the current "freshman class," since their images are presumably less cemented back home and therefore perhaps more reflective of national trends:

CLASS OF 2000
Thomas Carper (D-DE) 63-28
Ben Nelson (D-NE) 63-29
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) 63-34
Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) 56-37
John Ensign (R-NV) 54-34
Maria Cantwell (D-WA) 52-37
George Allen (R-VA) 49-38
Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) 50-39
Mark Dayton (D-MN) 44-46

Democrat Average: 56-36
Republican Average: 53-36
Overall Average: 55-36

CLASS OF 2002
Tim Johnson (D-SD) 73-21
Mark Pryor (D-AR) 61-30
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) 58-34
Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 58-32
Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 51-36
Norm Coleman (R-MN) 51-41
James Talent (R-MO) 51-40
John Sununu (R-NH) 49-39
Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) 47-40
John Cornyn (R-TX) 46-41
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) 45-45

Democrat Average: 60-32
Republican Average: 51-38
Overall Average: 54-36

CLASS OF 2004
Barack Obama (D-IL) 73-21
John Thune (R-SD) 60-36
Ken Salazar (D-CO) 58-34
David Vitter (R-LA) 58-34
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) 57-36
Johnny Isakson (R-GA) 51-35
Tom Coburn (R-OK) 48-42
Mel Martinez (R-FL) 48-41
Richard Burr (R-NC) 47-38
Jim DeMint (R-SC) 47-41

Democrat Average: 66-28
Republican Average: 52-38
Overall Average: 55-36

Off the top of my head, I'm not sure quite what to make of this. For the class of 2000, there is no major appreciable difference between the two parties, but the gap widens in favor of Democrats for 2002 and then again for 2004. I see several possible interpretations, none of them necessarily mutually exclusive:

(1) Republican Senators who are relatively new and haven't had time to build an image and a rapport with their constituents are suffering from the current dissatisfaction with President Bush and the Republican Party, while Democrats are not.

(2) Given the Republican trend in the 2002 and 2004 elections, only Democrats who are especially popular or have some sort of "star power" were able to win at all in those elections, thus skewing the Democratic sample. One can certainly make this case for Obama, of course. Salazar is by all accounts the most popular Democrat in Colorado, and Pryor comes from an established Arkansas political family. I'm less familiar with Tim Johnson and thus can't comment on him.

(3) As a corollary, perhaps the Republican candidates of 2002 and 2004 were comparatively mediocre. However, the difference between the average GOP rating for 2000 and the average GOP ratings for 2002 and 2004 is one of only a point or two in each direction (53-36, 51-38, 52-38). The trend seems to be more one of Democrats going up rather than Republicans going down.

My best guess would be (2) combined with some small element of (1) -- that is, Democratic "star power" combined with a small sample has helped Obama, Salazar, Pryor, and Johnson stand out, whereas Republicans and to some extent veteran Democrats are viewed less favorably because of current dissatisfaction with the direction of federal policy.

I'll try to come back to this soon by comparing trends for other "classes" in the Senate, and I'll also have more to say about the Rhode Island numbers specifically.