PENNSYLVANIA SENATE PRIMARY
For political junkies, the event to watch this week is the Republican Senate primary in Pennsylvania, where incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter faces a serious challenge from conservative Rep. Pat Toomey. Recent polls have shown Specter with only a slight lead over Toomey, and many are saying that voter turnout could well decide the race. From my side of the aisle, I'm tempted to root for a Toomey victory on the grounds that the soon-to-be Democratic nominee, Rep. Joe Hoeffel, would have an easier race. On the other hand, Pennsylvania did elect Rick Santorum twice, so it's not impossible for a conservative ideologue to win there, and if the Republicans *do* win, I'd much rather have Specter in the Senate than Toomey (especially if Kerry pulls out a win and needs some moderate Republican allies in Congress). I've also heard some concern that Toomey would help Bush's prospects in Pennsylvania by igniting the state's conservative base, though I'm skeptical that there are too many Toomey supporters who wouldn't turn out to vote for Bush anyway, regardless of who the Senate nominee is.
Anyway, this should be the most interesting Senate primary of the season. It might also be a preview of 2006 here in Rhode Island, where the word is that crypto-Democrat Lincoln Chafee will face a Republican primary challenge. On one hand, nominating a conservative ideologue would be tantamount to electoral suicide for Rhode Island Republicans: while sitting Gov. Don Carcieri is considerably to the right of the state's electorate, he ran against a fairly weak opponent (former State Sen. Myrth York, who has lost three gubernatorial elections in a row), and it's unlikely that he himself will forgo seeking re-election to challenge Chafee in a primary. On the other hand, Chafee may still be very vulnerable in the primary. Rhode Island Democrats (who make up a wide majority of the state's registered voters) will likely have a contested gubernatorial primary, unless they break the pattern of previous important statewide races and unite around a candidate beforehand. Since so much of Chafee's support comes from crossover Democrats, he probably won't have much luck convincing them to switch parties to vote for him in the primary, leaving him at the mercy of a Republican primary electorate that, at least anecdotally, seems pretty disappointed by his frequent public opposition to the Bush administration.
On a lighter note, you should go check out this flash ad on Hoeffel's site while it's still relevant.
Anyway, this should be the most interesting Senate primary of the season. It might also be a preview of 2006 here in Rhode Island, where the word is that crypto-Democrat Lincoln Chafee will face a Republican primary challenge. On one hand, nominating a conservative ideologue would be tantamount to electoral suicide for Rhode Island Republicans: while sitting Gov. Don Carcieri is considerably to the right of the state's electorate, he ran against a fairly weak opponent (former State Sen. Myrth York, who has lost three gubernatorial elections in a row), and it's unlikely that he himself will forgo seeking re-election to challenge Chafee in a primary. On the other hand, Chafee may still be very vulnerable in the primary. Rhode Island Democrats (who make up a wide majority of the state's registered voters) will likely have a contested gubernatorial primary, unless they break the pattern of previous important statewide races and unite around a candidate beforehand. Since so much of Chafee's support comes from crossover Democrats, he probably won't have much luck convincing them to switch parties to vote for him in the primary, leaving him at the mercy of a Republican primary electorate that, at least anecdotally, seems pretty disappointed by his frequent public opposition to the Bush administration.
On a lighter note, you should go check out this flash ad on Hoeffel's site while it's still relevant.
